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● The Japanese government breaks down from the reconciliation route with Russia, and will also take on the theme of Russian Ukraine invasion, which should thoroughly impose economic sanctions.If you haven't read the previous column, please read it together (Details are the 22nd column "The default probability of Russian government bonds has risen to 80 % in economic sanctions! However, even if Russia defaults, the financial system and the US economyThe risk of giving it is limited! "[Detailed images or tables] It has been reported that the refugees from Ukraine have now exceeded 3 million, and are not resentful of the invasion of Russia.The Japanese government protested that Russia has designated Japan as non -friendly countries, but it is a stupid story.Does Japan want to continue friendship with Russia, which is extremely dangerous?As Russia has become an invading country clearly, isn't it a source to break away from conventional reconciliation routes and thoroughly go to the sanctions in partnership with European and American countries?What do you think?● Is it possible for foreign -affiliated companies with an investment ratio of more than 25 % to seize by suspension or withdrawal of business?Well, the Russian government will make a surprising tactic.In response to a military invasion of Ukraine, Western media reported on Thursday last Thursday that he had begun to seize the assets of foreign -affiliated companies who decided to suspend or withdraw from business in Russia.It is reported that if a company with a foreign investment ratio of more than 25 % stop business in Russia, it will seize the facilities and assets of the company and leave the business continuation to Russian managers.In fact, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, under the rising criticism of the international community and the financial sanctions imposed by Japan, the United States, and Europe, the United States, the United States, Goldman Sachs, British Shells, and German Volkswagen in Europe and the United States.A large company decides to suspend and withdraw.If Russia's policies began to move concretely, the rebound of Western countries and foreign -affiliated companies is inevitable, and in economics, the conflict with Russia will deepen, and cracks will run.Putin's idea is:"Do not take the workplace of those who are motivated to work," "If you withdraw, you need to give a company to Russia," "There is no problem because there are enough legal means."The Russian government is likely to reduce the loss and confusion of the Russian economy due to the withdrawal of foreign capital, leading to domestic employment protection.However, in our point of view, in the vortex of the aggression wars that they became the device, they seemed to be the folklore of a fire thief.● The company stated that the company's suspension of business of global companies rooted in the Russian people's lives, especially in the United States, the enthusiasm for companies that continue to do business in Russia has increased day by day.There is.The major pension funds, such as the New York State Pension Fund, sent a letter to the investment company such as McDonald's, Coca -Cola, and Pepsico to suspend the Russian business.This is a fairly heavy investment decision.Food manufacturers and restaurant chains have a community -based business in Russia, and of course there are many companies that do not clarify their attitudes because they have the idea of "continuing their business if possible" with the Russian people in mind.However, last week, the company's business suspension has been suspended one after another.Movement is coming out in Japanese companies.Fast Retailing announced that it will suspend the business of 50 UNIQLO stores in Russia.Sony has also announced that it will suspend its product to Russia in the electric business, such as television and audio equipment, and Sony Music Entertainment, a group of groups, will suspend business activities in Russia.In short, the entire group, including movies and games, stops the Russian business.In addition, JT (Japanese Tobacco Industry), which has nearly 40 % share in the Russian market, announced new investment and marketing activities, and said that production and sales at Russia four plants were continuing policies, but the business environment is significant.The policy is changing, saying that production may be suspended if it is not improved.In recent years, the importance of "ESG (environmental, society, corporate rule) investment" has been shouted in the investment world.For companies, continuing their business in Russia will be accused of being "inhuman", and even if they withdraw, they have to consider the adverse effects on the whole business.● The United States has withdrawn from North Korea and Cuba, which has played a major economic role in Russia beyond the exceptional borders from the wise country treatment, withdrew one after another at the geopolitical risk of war.In the 20th century, many unfortunate wars were forced to do so, but it is surprising that such cases will appear in the 21st century.That's why this problem is serious and worrisome.The Russian side invaded Ukraine on the assumption that "I only need to put Ukraine under the umbrella", "ends in a short period of time", and "I will make no to the western countries", but it is no other thing to do in all aspects.It is Nu Russia.The price is too large.US President Biden has announced that it will exclude Russia from the wise country treatment.This is the third country following North Korea and Cuba, and the US tariff ratio for imports from Russia has risen from the current 3 % to around 32 %.Oil, natural gas, vodka, diamonds, etc. are also stopped one after another.In the early 2000s, Russia had been trapped by investors as a corner of BRICS, but its features have now disappeared and trust has fallen to the ground.In this case, it would be difficult for Russia to call on investment from Western countries in the future.Losing trust is a moment, and it takes extraordinary time and effort to regain it.● Tadashi Ota DFR investment advice.He is mainly an analyst for small and medium -sized stocks in Jardin Fleming Securities (now JP Morgan Securities).He has maintained the top ranking for six years in Japan and overseas.A top of top analyst and fund manager evaluated by a professional.Currently, he is active not only in small and medium -sized stocks, but also for finding cheap shares from the entire market, and as a value stock hunter.
Tadashi Ota
