Fuji Chimera Research Institute, a marketing and consultation company, is investigating the AR/VR market, which is booming due to the performance improvement of display devices and the emergence of 5G communication. The results are summarized in “Future Outlook of AR/VR Related Markets 2020”.
In the same survey, the current market conditions for AR (Augmented Reality)/VR (Virtual Reality) display devices of 9 items, compatible devices of 5 items, related devices of 13 items, content items of 2 items, and solution items of 10 items. understand and predict the future. In addition, we conducted a case analysis of a total of 10 manufacturers of head-mounted displays and smart glasses.
There are two global markets that are attracting attention: smart glasses for AR display devices and head-mounted displays (HMD) for VR display devices.
Targeted are AR smart glasses that enable AR display and MR smart glasses that enable MR (Mixed Reality. A type of AR technology) display by superimposing images on the field of view visible to the naked eye. . AR smart glasses are characterized by small size, low price, and long operation time, while MR smart glasses have excellent sensing accuracy and enable 3D drawing display. Both are available in connected and standalone versions.
AR smart glasses are mainly for BtoB, such as work support at construction sites and manufacturing sites where both hands are often blocked, such as carrying things. In addition to the large number of workers at various sites, latent demand is expected to be large, and from 2020, due to the effects of the new coronavirus infection, remote instruction and support will reduce the number of people on site and the number of people traveling. Adoption for the purpose of remote work support is expected to accelerate. The market is expected to expand due to the increase in the connected type that displays the screen by linking with a smartphone, but in the long term, a shift to MR smart glasses is expected.
In terms of performance requirements, for BtoB, in addition to long-time operation and improved wearability, as it is used in a variety of work environments, improved durability including dustproof/splashproof, hands-free, cableless, Voice input recognition accuracy improvement etc. are strong. On the other hand, there is a high need for high resolution and wide viewing angles in BtoC game applications, BtoBtoC amusement and tourism/travel applications.
The MR smart glasses market is mainly for BtoB. Many of the products are performance-oriented, and because they are expensive and large in size, there are few B-to-C products. A smartphone-connected type that emphasizes weight reduction and cost reduction was launched in 2020, but since the sensing accuracy is lower than that of products for B2B, full-fledged popularization is expected by major manufacturers such as Apple in 2022. It seems to be after 2018. In addition, it is expected that the stand-alone type will be after 2025, when products with a good balance between CPU processing and battery performance are expected to appear.
In terms of performance requirements, the most important ones are improved wearability and weight reduction. A weight of 200g or less is required for work, and the bottleneck is that it is too heavy compared to AR smart glasses. Therefore, it is expected that connection-type devices, in which mobile terminals such as smartphones serve as CPUs, will become popular. In addition, although the sensing accuracy is improving, it is expected that the accuracy of sensing, mainly LIDAR, will drop in sunny outdoors, etc., and manufacturers will continue to respond.
HMDs that project VR are targeted for connected types that perform arithmetic processing with the CPUs and GPUs of PCs, game consoles, and mobile terminals, and stand-alone types that function independently with a CPU installed in the display device.
The connected type market is expected to shrink in 2020 as the number of shipments of "PlayStation VR" has been declining since the start of sales. In the future, it is expected that we will introduce a new type of game machine connection type HMD compatible with "PlayStation 5" scheduled to be released at the end of 2020, and mobile terminal connection type HMD from multiple manufacturers after 2021. The market is expected to expand significantly until around 2024. However, the market is expected to shrink in the long run due to factors such as the price reduction of the mobile terminal connection type, which is driving the expansion, and the shift to stand-alone type.
Since around 2016, multiple manufacturers have started selling standalone products. Due to the strong performance of “Oculus Quest” released in 2019, the launch of devices equipped with 4K resolution displays, and the adoption as a communication tool for participating in VR chats and telework meetings due to the increase in home time, 2020 market is expected to expand. At present, the standalone type has lower processing power than the game machine/PC connection type, but the market is expected to expand as the performance improves.
It is said that the strongest demand for performance is improvement of wearability and weight reduction. Support for stand-alone and cableless systems is also one of the challenges for market expansion. In B2B, there is a high need for high resolution because it takes time to lower the resolution of the data to match the performance of the HMD. In addition, the need for pure high-resolution display is high in medical applications, and more than 8K is also required.
A summary of the survey results, including the above two markets, is as follows.
Intended for smart glasses, HMDs, heads-up displays (HUDs), and aerial displays. Currently, the market is driven by HUDs, which are mainly installed in luxury cars, and HMDs, which are mostly for BtoC.
In 2020, it was expected that HMDs and smart glasses connected to 5G communication compatible smartphones would grow, but due to the impact of the new coronavirus infection, the market has been delayed, and it is expected that it will become full-scale after 2021. Be looked at. In addition, since it is possible to view high-definition VR videos by using 5G communication, it is expected that each mobile communication carrier will sell 5G communication-compatible smartphones and display devices as a set, and develop AR/VR content and solutions. .
In addition, Apple is expected to release MR smart glasses by around 2022, and the smart glasses market for BtoC is expected to gain momentum. Due to improvements in device performance, it is expected to grow significantly from 2025 to 2030 as a post-smartphone or a mobile terminal that can replace other IT devices. Driven by smart glasses, the global market for AR/VR display devices is expected to reach 16,171.1 billion yen in 2030, 44.8 times the 2019 cost. In addition to smart glasses, HMDs and HUDs are also growing, and HUDs are expected to increase demand for advanced AR-HUDs that enable real-time AR display.
It targets game content and video content/video distribution.
The market for game content is expanding, partly due to an increase in VR-only games that use HMDs. Especially in 2020, due to the refraining from going out due to the spread of new coronavirus infections, game content that can be played in living spaces is growing. In addition to the spread of AR/VR display devices such as HMDs and smart glasses, it is considered essential to improve the performance of the devices in order to expand the market and expand game content in the future.
The market for video content/video distribution is expanding, centering on on-demand distribution, along with the spread of HMDs. The video content lineup has been expanded, but at present, while the use of content by users with VR display devices is increasing, the acquisition of new users is not progressing. In the future, the spread of 5G communication will make two-way communication easier, and it is speculated that live distribution that allows you to experience a sense of presence in VR will drive the expansion. Furthermore, the market is expected to expand due to the spread of multi-angle and the adoption of VR in videos of various genres.
AR/VR solutions are mainly used for remote work support and group training.
Demand for AR / MR solutions is increasing for the purpose of improving work efficiency to compensate for the movement to avoid the "three Cs" and labor shortages due to the spread of new coronavirus infections. It is expected to expand with the development of compatible devices such as MR smart glasses and improvement of specifications.
VR solutions are mainly used in training, and it is expected that multiplayer support, where instructors and multiple trainees can experience simultaneously, will progress. After 2025, the expansion of remote work robots and remote communication robots is expected. In particular, work robots are expected to be introduced in earnest as a solution to solve the labor shortage in place of AR/MR remote work support.
Interviews by Fuji Chimera Research Institute, research and analysis using related literature and databases
March to June 2020
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